A. Position Information

Organization: UNDP Saudi Arabia, through Stars Orbit Consultants and Management Development (SOC).

VA No. VA24-115

Position Title: Urban Economics Expert
Consultancy Type: International Expert

Duty Station: Jeddah/Makkah and remotely

Duration: 70 days over 6 months, with possibility for extension.

Vacancy Date of Issue: 8 July 2024

Vacancy Closure Date: 15 July 2024

Expected Starting Date: As soon as possible

This vacancy is announced by UNDP Saudi Arabia through Stars Orbit Consultants and Management Development (SOC). SOC is a sub-contractor for UNDP Saudi Arabia, assisting the programme in implementing their activities through HR and contract management of consultants working in their support.

B. Project Description

Makkah City is one of the two holy cities of Islam in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the other being Madinah City. The two holy sites attract millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims every year. Indeed, the Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages are the backbone of Makkah’s economy.

The population of Makkah City almost doubles over the Hajj period (as c.2 m Hajj pilgrims are added to a resident base of 2.4m) severely straining infrastructure and services. Beyond the Hajj pilgrimage, a key goal of Saudi Vision 2030 — the Kingdom’s long-term development blueprint launched in 2016 which aims to cut Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil, while promoting new sectors, from manufacturing and financial services to culture and tourism — is to provide quality services to 30 million Umrah visitors every year by 2030.

The Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites (RCMC) was established by Royal Decree as a result of KSA’s commitment to improve the resident and visitor experience within the Kingdom. Its mandate is to improve services in Makkah City and the Holy Sites in a manner that is commensurate

with their sanctity, with the overall aim of enhancing, strengthening, and evolving the city of Makkah for the benefit of all.

The RCMC’s vision for the City of Makkah is of a polycentric, livable, culturally touristic, resilient and sustainable city for the future. In delivering the future of the city, an ongoing project focuses on four streams, touching on both strategic and spatial elements:

• A: Makkah city Strategy
  • Covering the entire RCMC jurisdiction (approx. 2700 km2)
• B: Makkah city Spatial Development Framework
  • Covering the Haram Boundary (approx. 570km2)
• C: Detailed Master Plan for the Makkah city central area
  • Covering the area within the 2nd ring-road (approx. 6km2)
• D: Conceptual Masterplan for the Masha’er Area
  • Covering the area allocated for Hajj pilgrimage and its buffer zone (approx. 120 km2)

Work on this Plan via a selected international consortium commenced in February 20241. For this particular assignment, the links and interdependencies between Streams A and B will be of prime importance.

The RCMC seeks to be an effective contributor to the achievement of specific objectives of Vision 2030. One of the main subject areas to be addressed in the Plan, and specifically in Stream A, will be Urban Economics. Within the context of this particular assignment, the selected expert will be expected to engage in the process of shaping, as well as evaluating, the different strategic growth scenarios being currently explored for the city under Stream A.

The RCMC is the main beneficiary of the support to the Royal Commission for Mecca City and Holy Sites Project through which UNDP will provide technical assistance, quality control, advisory services, and capacity development support over a period of 24 months to strengthen the capacity of the RCMC to deliver on its mandate, fulfil its responsibilities and achieve its vision for Makkah City and the specific objectives of the Plan while also contributing to the realization of Saudi Vision 2030.

C. Scope of Work

Broadly speaking, the scope of this assignment will cover the Urban Economics subject area. There is an ongoing economic model being developed by the consortium already engaged by RCMC. The economic model estimates the city’s GDP baseline (2023) and forecast (through to 2040), including jobs and population.

The scope of reviews will focus on the below but not be limited to:

• Gross domestic product of Makkah city (baseline and forecast)
• Employment of Makkah city (baseline and forecast)
• Local (KSA) content value-add forecast
• Fiscal costs and revenues forecast

Some of the aspects that will need to be afforded special emphasis in the reviews of the economic outputs include but are not limited to:

• Urban agglomeration effects within Makkah city in line with spatial development (e.g. TODs)
• Economic complementarity with neighboring cities such as Jeddah, Madinah, Taif given the spillover effects but also reliance on complementary economic sectors
• Prioritization of economic sectors within Makkah city in line with competitive advantage of Makkah city
• Informal settlement landscape in Makkah city given the high prevalence of such neighborhoods

spread throughout the city and impact on the city’s formal and informal economy

• Shadow (informal) economy which is anticipated to be sizable given the presence of informal settlements and means to monitor its size

More details will be provided to the selected expert.

• The seasonal economic activity driven by pilgrim visitations to the central area of Makkah city where Masjid Al-Haram is located and impact of such concentrated growth on the city’s economy
• Seasonally-driven economic growth due to high visitation numbers in Ramadan and Hajj periods and subsequent impact on employment and economic resilience
• Upcoming mega-projects across the city which will add significant real estate volume (mixed- use) to the existing base and impact on economic growth, urbanization and socio-economic effects

All of the above areas will need to be considered as the city’s economic forecasts are being developed. Individual forecasts are being developed for alternate strategic scenarios for the future of Makkah city (through to 2040). Accounting for the above listed areas is imperative in arriving at reliable economic forecast figures, which will be used as inputs to determine the optimal strategic scenario for Makkah city to proceed with.

In addition, the economist also needs to provide input on Stream B (spatial scenarios). The spatial transformation of Makkah city from its current ‘monocentric’ model towards a ‘growth corridor/polycentric’ spatial model (an urban structure approved for the central area in December 20232) will have economic impacts which need to be explored.

This assignment is designed to contribute to the ongoing work of the selected consortium, reviewing outputs, challenging where necessary, and providing unique insights based on prior urban economic experience.

The geographic scope of the mission shall cover the entire area under stream A.

D. Duties and responsibilities (Tasks):

Section 1 – GDP and employment modeling

a. Evaluate and provide feedback on Makkah city’s economic baseline model logic and outputs

(being developed by the consortium)

b. Evaluate and provide feedback on Makkah city’s economic forecasting model for each of the

strategic scenarios (being developed by the consortium)

1. Define the strengths and weaknesses from an urban economic perspective associated with each of the proposed strategic scenarios
2. Advise on measures to enable RCMC to effectively capture the size and role of the shadow economy in Makkah city as part of its economic baseline and forecast figures
3. Advise on measures to enable ambitious, yet pragmatic, prioritization of economic sectors in Makkah city, including the necessary transition of priority sectors from status quo through to forecast
4. Advise on measures to capture economic impact from large scale events such as Hajj, which

contribute significantly to Makkah city’s economy

1. Outline potential spillover effects resulting from alternate strategic scenarios for Makkah city, onto neighboring cities (e.g. Jeddah, Madinah) and potential means to capture such economic spillover effects
2. More information on this transformation will be provided to the selected consultant.

Section 2 – Local content and fiscal analysis

1. Evaluate and provide feedback on approach to calculate local content value-add within KSA resulting from economic development
2. Evaluate and provide feedback on approach to calculate government fiscal revenues and costs resulting from economic development

Section 3 – Economic impact of spatial interventions

1. Advise on economic benefits and challenges associated with the adopted ‘growth- corridor/polycentric’ hybrid model.
2. Advise on economic implications of intervening with informal settlements, leveraging lessons learned from international examples
3. Advise on economic impact of developing urban sub-centers and nodes mindful of their transit- oriented development (TOD) hubs, as well as industry-specific hubs.

Finally, and as alluded to in the sections above, the selected STE will focus on review, assessment and verification of the deliverables being produced by the contracted consortium, rather than conducting any of the tasks listed above under section 3

E. Institutional Arrangement

Administratively, the Urban Economics expert will work under the guidance of the Urban and Local Development Portfolio Manager at the UNDP Saudi Arabia Office. Technically, he/she will work under the guidance of the UNDP Project Chief Technical Adviser (CTA), coordinate with the RCMC PM and team, relevant stakeholders both within RCMC and beyond in addition to the UNDP appointed team of consultants throughout the duration of this mission.

F. Duty Station

Makkah and Jeddah, however it will be possible to execute up to 20% of the assignment remotely after coordination with the UNDP CTA and RCMC PM.

G. REQUIRED QUALIFICATIONS

Education:

MSc or PhD in Urban Economics or related field.

BSc in Economics, plus

Min. years of relevant work experience

15

Required skills

• Technical report writing.
• Ability to conduct and/or moderate meetings.
• Full grasp of National, regional and city level economics and fiscal policies.
• Full grasp of formal and informal urban economics.
• Benchmarking, interpretation and analysis of urban GDP, economic growth data and indicators.
• Statistical analysis and interpretation.
• Grasp of basic urban planning and urban development elements.

Desired skills in addition to the competencies covered in the Competencies section

Interpersonal and communication

Required Language(s)

Full proficiency in the English is required. Ability to read/write/speak Arabic will be an advantage.